SPE Technical Happy Hour: Predictive Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, and Economic Optimization of Well Refracturing in the Bakken and Permian Basin

Host: Society of Petroleum Engineers, Denver Section

Event: October 2026 Technical Happy Hour

Time: October 13th, 4-6pm (HH begins at 4, Talk at 430, more Social until 6)

Location: Liberty Energy, 950 17th St, Suite 2400, Denver, CO 80202

Sponsor: Liberty Energy

Study Group Category: Reservoir and Completions

Speaker: Garrett Fowler, Chief Operating Officer, ResFrac

Title: Predictive Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, and Economic Optimization of Well Refracturing in the Bakken and Permian Basin

Abstract:

Refracturing depleted unconventional wells can yield low(er) capital, high ROI inventory, but unpredictable field results can challenge planning and budget justification. By combining physics-based hydraulic fracturing, geomechanics, and reservoir simulation across the Bakken and Permian Basin, we show that refrac outcomes are highly predictable—achieving blind-test forecasts that matched actual one-year production uplifts with an average mismatch of just 3.7%. Model sensitivity analysis shows that short-term refrac gains are driven by pre-refrac recovery factors and well age, while long-term EUR uplift is governed by infill well distance, overall well spacing, and original cluster spacing. Poroelastic stress changes from depletion play overprint refrac performance, as uneven stress profiles cause fluid to simply reactivate old fractures instead of creating fresh rock surface. Economic optimization shows that the “right” refrac design is a function of depletion and fracture height containment. The easy refrac candidates are older wells with wide original cluster spacing, large unstimulated lateral gaps, low recovery factors, and wide well spacing – we show that there is opportunity in less obvious candidates when evaluated carefully!

Bio:

Garrett Fowler is Chief Operating Officer at ResFrac, where he leads global business strategy, commercial operations, and professional services across shale, geothermal, and CCUS projects. An engineer himself, Garrett has performed and directed studies in every major shale basin worldwide. Prior to ResFrac, he held reservoir engineering roles at Oxy and Tachyus, focusing on EOR and waterflooding. Garrett graduated with distinction from Stanford University with a BS in Energy Resources Engineering and an MS in Petroleum Engineering. He has authored and co-authored more than 30 technical papers, earned the 2022 SPE Regional Completions Optimization and Technology Award, and is an Eagle Scout, search and rescue diver, and multi-time Ironman finisher.